上图充分显示了我对上海指数的周期预测。趋势很清晰,股市会上涨至6月下旬。
为什么会反弹?下图回答了这个问题,它展示了中国股票与利率之间的重要关系......注意代表利率的蓝线,利率在股票领先方面做得很好。
图二的预测是中国股市至少在6月份之前会上涨,所以周期与利率基本同步。愿快乐的时光持续吧!
关于作者:
拉里·威廉姆斯(Larry Williams),是威廉指标的创始人,美国著名的期货交易员和资产管理经理。他是罗宾斯杯期货交易冠军赛的总冠军。
威廉姆斯1942年生于美国蒙大拿州,毕业于俄勒冈大学新闻系,系著名期货交易员,他就职于美国国家期货协会理事会,并曾在蒙大拿州两次竞选国会议员。它是始终被公众追随的优秀投资顾问之一,曾多次被《巴伦斯》杂志、《华尔街日报》、《财富》、《幸福》、《拜伦斯》、《福布斯》、《财富》杂志专访过。他还多次在一些重要的电视专访中露面并任财经新闻网的特约撰稿人,并在世界重要商品和和金融论坛做讲座。
威廉姆斯写过好几本书,包括《选股的秘密》、《我怎样在商品交易中赚得一百万美元》、《季节因素是如何影响商品的》、《怎样在未来年份里发财》、《短线交易秘诀》、《期货交易准则》第一册和第二册、《摩西山》。
原文:
STOCK MARKET RALLY COMING FOR CHINA
Stocks in China have just taken a beating, one of the largest declines in recent memory; exactly as this author predicted at the first of 2018. Is it over or is there more to come and China and the U.S. have begun the “Trump Tariff War”.
Ad readers may recall or advice last December was “Take profits and seek selling opportunities”. We went out on a limb using our economic model to forecast to, “expect and overall down market well into March of 2018”.
All that has come to pass, so where now and what next?
Here is my prediction on that war; after posturing China and the U.S. will set down and long, drawn out, bargaining sessions and come up with new tariffs that will work for both countries.
Keep in mind President Trump is a practical businessman that made his fortune negotiating deals, bargaining. His best-selling book, “The Art of the Deal” says it all.
This is not the end of economic relations with the U.S., it is the start of a new era.
In this new era, you need to keep in mind stocks in China don’t always go down…they can rally…and that’s just what they are going to do now!
The above chart shows my cycle forecast for the Shanghai Index. The picture is clear; prices rally into late June.
Why will they rally? The next chart answers that questions as here I show the leading relationship between stocks in China and interest rates...the blue line. Rates have done a very good job of leading the way for stocks as a quick glance shows.
The forecast here is for a rally into at least June so cycles are in phase with interest rates. Let the good times roll.
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